Paul Valcke GUPDA Poster bibliography

Industrialized anthropic forces are physically destabilizing the earth system.

1. Destabilisation of the earth system :
   1. climate (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf)
   2. biodiversity (IPBES (2019): Global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. E. S. Brondizio, J. Settele, S. Díaz, and H. T. Ngo (editors). IPBES secretariat, Bonn, Germany. 1148 pages. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3831673)
   3. Ressources
      1. Schaffartzik, A.; Mayer, A.; Gingrich, S.; Eisenmenger, N.; Loy, C.; Krausmann, F. The globa metabolic transition: Regional patterns and trends of global material flows, 1950–2010. Global Environmental Change 2014, 26, 87–97. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.03.013.
      2. Graedel, T.E. On the future availability of the energy metals. Annual Review of Materials Research 2011, 41, 323–335.
2. The nuance in the role of each country https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-are-historically-responsible-for-climate-change
3. Humanity always impacted their environment,, yet without necessary damaging it : (https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aax1192)

We are destroying natural buffers with irreversible impact in the short term.

1. Tipping points https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0_

We need to identify the main causes and levers of change, towards a just transition that avoids all collapses.

1. The cause of nature destruction and inequalities share the same roots, Laudato Si’ https://www.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/encyclicals/documents/papa-francesco_20150524_enciclica-laudato-si.html
2. Limits to growth http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Meadows-Limits-to-Growth-Short-1972.pdf

Fast, strong systemic changes in our organisation are needed both for mitigation and acclimation.

1. IPCC third group https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf
2. Stranded assets risk https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629618305383

Classical economic theoretical constructions show their limits due to their theoretical core, especially for coupling

• Keen’s critics : Steve Keen (2020): The appallingly bad neoclassical economics of climate change, Globalizations, DOI: 10.1080/14747731.2020.1807856
• Antonin Pottier “How economists are heating the planet” https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01101591/document
• Quasistatic hypotheses and their impact on fast phenomena https://doi.org/10.1007/s00332-017-9407-0
• Thinking in systems (Donella’s Meadow) https://scholar.google.com/scholar_url?url=http://radicalteacher.com/uploads/MeadowsIntroOne.pdf&hl=fr&sa=X&ei=A2tyYrOiCYyEmgHYgJfgBw&scisig=AAGBfm06YMGQvVGuvytJTKGWMNpWu2-wvw&oi=scholarr

We build alternatives based on complexity modelling and dissipative systems, closer to biophysical structures

• Georgescu-Roegen thought for thermodynamics and economy https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1350178X.2021.1880614
• Limits to growth http://www.peakoilindia.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Limits-to-Growth-updated.pdf

Definition of complexity

• What is life https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/What_Is_Life%3Flo
• Lotka (https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1512317112)

The definition of environment

• Canguilhem (https://doi.org/10.1515/9780823291977)
• Macroeconomy as economic environment https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/macro-environment.asp

The definition of justice

• 4 types of justice
• Inequal exchange https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(97)00100-6

Macroeconomy

• Long-run models Atkinson, A.B., 1969. The timescale of economic models: How long is the long run? The Review of Economic Studies, vol. 36, no. 2, 137–152.
• Peering over the edge of the short period? The Keynesian Roots of Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models

Inqualities

• Highly recommend Jason’s Hickel Bibliography https://www.jasonhickel.org/the-divide
• Agent-based model dynamics of inequalities (Bouchaud, J. P. & Mézard, M. Wealth condensation in a simple model of economy. Physica A 282, 536–545 (2000).)
• Inter-generational inequalities https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi7339
• Inequal exposition to climate change https://www.un.org/esa/desa/papers/2017/wp152_2017.pdf

Limits to growth

• Executive report https://www.clubofrome.org/publication/the-limits-to-growth/
• Relevance today  https://doi.org/10.1111/anti.12125

Goodwin Model

• The Stock-Flow Consistent Approach https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/9780230353848
• The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well: Inflation and the NAIRU During the Slow Recovery https://www.nber.org/papers/w19390
• Goodwin, R.M., 1967. A growth cycle. In Socialism, Capitalism and Economic Growth,
  editor C.H. Feinstein. Cambridge University Press, London, 54–58.
• Desai, M., Henry, B., Mosley, A., and Pemberton, M., 2006. A clarification of the Goodwin
  model of the growth cycle. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 30, no. 12,
  2661–2670.
• van der Ploeg, F., 1987. Growth cycles, induced technical change, and perpetual conflict
  over the distribution of income. Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 9, 1–12.

Debt, climate abbatement

• Coping With Collapse: A Stock-Flow Consistent Monetary Macrodynamics
  of Global Warming https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.01.034

Refined model

• CES model : Bastidas, D., Fabre, A. & Mc Isaac, F. Minskyan classical growth cycles: stability analysis of a stock-flow consistent macrodynamic model. Math Finan Econ 13, 359–391 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11579-018-0231-6
• Inventory growth cycles with debt-financed investment https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2018.01.003
• Desai, M., 1973. Growth cycles and inflation in a model of the class struggle. Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 6, no. 6, 527–545.
• Grasselli, M.R. and Costa Lima, B., 2012. An analysis of the Keen model for credit expansion,asset price bubbles and financial fragility. Mathematics and Financial Economics, vol. 6, no. 3, 191–210.
• Keen, S., 1995. Finance and economic breakdown: Modeling Minsky’s “Financial Instability Hypothesis”. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, vol. 17, no. 4, 607–635.
• Nguyen Huu, A. and Costa-Lima, B., 2014. Orbits in a stochastic Goodwin–Lotka–Volterra
  model. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, vol. 419, no. 1, 48–67.

Multiple sectors

• Costa Lima, B., Grasselli, M., Wang, X.S., and Wu, J., 2014. Destabilizing a stable crisis:
  Employment persistence and government intervention in macroeconomics. Structural
  Change and Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, 30 – 51.

Estimations

• Grasselli, M.R. and Maheshwari, A., 2017. A comment on ‘Testing Goodwin: growth
  cycles in ten OECD countries’.
• Dibeh, G., Luchinsky, D., Luchinskaya, D., and Smelyanskiy, V., 2007. A Bayesian estimation
• of a stochastic predator-prey model of economic fluctuations. In Noise and
  Stochastics in Complex Systems and Finance, editor J.K.S.B.R.N. Mantegna, vol. 6601 of
  SPIE Proceedings. 10.
• Flaschel, P., 2009. The Goodwin distributive cycle after fifteen years of new observations.In Topics in Classical Micro- and Macroeconomics. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 465–480.
• Garcia-Molina, M. and Medina, E., 2010. Are there Goodwin employment-distribution
  cycles? International empirical evidence. Cuadernos de Economia, vol. 29, 1–29
• Goldstein, J.P., 1999. Predator-prey model estimates of the cyclical profit squeeze. Metroeconomica,vol. 50, no. 2, 139–173.
• Harvie, D., 2000. Testing Goodwin: Growth cycles in ten OECD countries. Cambridge
  Journal of Economics, vol. 24, no. 3, 349–76.
• Massy, I., Avila, A., and Garcia-Molina, M., 2013. Quantitative evidence of Goodwin’s non-linear growth cycles. Applied Mathematical Sciences, vol. 7, 1409–1417.
• Mohun, S. and Veneziani, R., 2006. Goodwin cycles and the U.S. economy, 1948-2004.
  MPRA paper, University Library of Munich, Germany.
• Moura Jr., N. and Ribeiro, M.B., 2013. Testing the Goodwin growth-cycle macroeconomic dynamics in Brazil. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, vol. 392, no. 9, 2088 – 2103.
• Ryzhenkov, A.V., 2009. A Goodwinian model with direct and roundabout returns to scale
  (an application to Italy). Metroeconomica, vol. 60, no. 3, 343–399.
• Tarassow, A., 2010. The empirical relevance of Goodwin’s business cycle model for the US economy. MPRA Paper 21012, University Library of Munich, Germany.